It is not usually the case in the savannah for the leader of a lions’ Pride to go quietly into the mellow sunset of a dignified end. As it often happens, adolescent lions, challengers to his long-guarded throne, usually watch out for the slightest hint of waning strength; drop in his shoulder, tremulous note to his roar or a limp in his gait as a signal to go on full attack mode and wrestle his kingdom for themselves.
The same is true for political office holders in Nigeria where the beginning of the end of one’s tenure in office is usually a signal for opponents and allies alike to make very strong plays for their position.
In Kogi state however, Governor Yahaya Adoza Bello is bucking this trend even as his 8-year, 2-term administration draws to its inevitable end. As the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in the State prepares for the primary election to select her flag bearer for the November 11th, 2023 Governorship election, it is a statement of fact that Governor Yahaya Bello appears to be at his strongest ever as the undisputed leader heading into the April 14th, 2023 primary of the party.
This is not by chance. Governor Bello has demonstrated ever since he took oath of office in 2016 that he has an aptitude for the political game of thrones. His pacification of restive politicians across the 3 senatorial zones in the state, dismantling of age-old political power structures, tackling of seemingly intractable security issues and taming of the once restive civil service union through a single-minded, ruthlessly executed staff verification exercise are all pointers to his survivability in the game. Impressively, he managed all these while navigating the banana peel of re-election in 2019, and a strong but ultimately unsuccessful bid for the presidential ticket of the APC just last year.
And so it is that barely 9 months to the end of his tenure, usually a dicey time for most political leaders – fraught with betrayals and defections from erstwhile allies; Governor Bello has seemingly mastered the back of the tiger. Seven of his closest aides, including his deputy, purchased nomination forms and have all been successfully screened and cleared for the APC primary –all with his ‘blessing’. Other aspirants like the former Executive Director, Rural Electrification Fund, Dr. Sanusi Ohiare; the Deputy National Publicity Secretary of APC, Alhaji Murtala Ajaka and former Minister of state for Labour, Professor Stephen Ocheni – all eyeing the Lugard House seat on the ruling party’s platform, are running on the Governor’s goodwill and angling to be his anointed candidate too.
Such is the larger-than-life political power wielded by Governor Yahaya Bello in Kogi state today. In fact, for those aspirants who consider themselves part of his ‘inner circle’, the overweening dependence on his ‘endorsement’ have all but rendered their campaign non-existent as they wait to be handpicked.
Conversely, those who believe the Governor’s promise to “let the system decide” the party’s flag bearer are busily traversing the State seeking the endorsements of APC delegates, traditional rulers and other stakeholders.
While Governor Yahaya Bello masterfully plays his role of ‘coy Kingmaker’ in the evolving drama in Kogi APC, analysts and political watchers are left with naught to do but speculate. A lot of factors will influence his final decision, chief of which is ensuring the APC remains as ruling party. Another factor is preservation of his legacy and the need to pick as successor, a candidate with the political charisma to generate cross-sectional support from the 3 senatorial zones in the State.
This last factor is of utmost importance against the background of latent power struggle between the major ethnic groups; Igala, Ebira and Okun in the state.
Surprisingly, the frontline aspirants, either by accident or design, reflect the political power composition in the state. From Kogi east, traditional base of the Igalas is the powerful deputy Governor and long-time associate of the Governor, Chief Edward Onoja and Alhaji Murtala Ajaka. From the Central zone –the Governor’s base, it is a battle for the Governor’s ‘affection’ among the Governor’s childhood friend and until recently, Accountant-general of the State, Alhaji Jibril Momoh; the young Chief of Staff to the Governor, Pharmacist Muhammed Jamiu Asuku and another youthful technocrat turned politician, Dr. Sanusi Ohiare –scion of a political family considered long-time allies of President-elect, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
The lone leading light from Kogi west is the influential Commissioner of Finance, Mukadam Asiru Idris.
Who, among these frontrunners, gets the nod as the Governor’s ‘Chosen One’ on April 14th? The answer undoubtedly will have massive implication on the APC’s 8-year rule in the State.
While Governor Yahaya Bello keeps everyone guessing until the last moment, one thing is for certain: the Kogi APC primary election represents for the White Lion a last dance and he knows more than anyone the dire consequences –for his party and legacy- of missing a beat.
Nurudeen Shehu is Lead Strategist at Line-BorderPoint NG. He writes from Abuja.