By: David Alfred-Dogwo | February 6, 2023
If free and fair Election is conducted on 25th of February, 2023, none of the Presidential Candidate will win. But there will be a run-off election between Asiwaju (APC) and Atiku (PDP), the first in the country’s history. Peter Obi will be out of it but he will be the referee of the run off election.
The INEC has restated that the winner of the presidential election in February 2023 must score the highest votes and they required 25 percent in two-thirds spread in the 36 states of the federation. It said where a clear winner did not emerge, there would be a second election between the person with the highest votes and the person with the spread, but not necessarily the second highest votes scored.
Neither Asiwaju, Atiku or Obi can win with 25% votes in 24 states out of the 36 states of the federation including the FCT.
*ASIWAJU may win, in my projection:
Yobe, Borno, Zamfara, Katsina, Jigawa, Niger, Nasarawa, Kogi, Oyo, Ondo, Ekiti, Lagos and Ogun
*ATIKU may win:
Sokoto, Kaduna, Bauchi, Gombe, Adamawa, Taraba, FCT, Osun, Delta, Bayelsa, Rivers and Akwa Ibom
*PETER OBI may win:
Plateau, Edo, Abia, Imo, Enugu, Anambra, Ebonyi, Cross River and Benue
*List of states that are between Asiwaju and Atiku are:
Kebbi, Kano and Kwara
From the foregoing, my projection indicates that Asiwaju may win 13 states while Atiku may win 12. Obi may take 9 states.
With Kebbi, Kano and Kwara undetermined, Asiwaju may swing upto 16 states or Atiku 15.
In the run off election, candidate with wide spread of votes (not necessarily highest votes) will be declared winner.
At run off, the election will become Hausa versus Yoruba.
This is where Peter Obi will become the referee of who wins. He will decide whom the Ibos will vote (Hausa or Yoruba)
Between Asiwaju and Atiku, it’s gonna be tough. Who will win?
Over to you, I can’t be a lawyer and the judge at the same time.
®ALFRED DOGWO is a free-Speech Activist and writes from Abuja