In the November Kogi governorship election, there are 4 LGA areas that could be easily won by any of the three (3) substantive regional candidates, Alh. Usman Ododo, Sen. Dino Melaye and Alh Murtala Yakubu Ajaka, which can swing either way.
This LGAs have a split supports among the two leading parties APC and PDP in recent election cycles, as we await the much talk about 3rd force SDP of Muri Ajaka.
Sometimes in this 4 LGAs, they can easily spring surprises especially Bassa and Ogori Magongo LGA. They are usually very critical about candidates and not political party going by the recent elections outcome.
The two (2) other swing LGA areas are Lokoja and Kogi (Koton Koto Karfe) LGA areas. Alhough, recent elections outcome shows the ruling APC have an edge above the rival PDP.
Heading into the November election, this distinctive 4 LGAs had voted for and against the same political parties in previous elections and can swing either way to any of the candidate.
But for Alh. Ododo of APC and Sen. Dino of PDP, Lokoja and Koto is a most WIN and not a LOSE. Both candidate must strategize and work hard to secure victory in this two (2) battleground LGAs to be sure of capturing Lugard house.
Sen. Dino is already facing a stiff opposition and potential threat at home front from Hon. Leke Abejide of ADC which will eventually cancel out Kogi West quest of Okun extraction of occupying Lugard House.
The news of Muri”s SDP coming down to this very important swing LGAs to pick his deputy, may likely jeopardize the chances of the two leading political parties APC, PDP. Its not a win win LGA for Muri but to reduce the figures of Ododo and Dino.
The main determining factor of winning this two LGA areas is by elites consensus. The supporters of this areas are dependant and take directives from the leaders.
In Koton Karfe LGA, there are about 2-3 blocks of support base and the most formidable block of all is SAS structure, headed by the charismatic Hon Saidu Akawu Salihu and the other Hon. Bashir Gegu. SAS block spread to the sister Lokoja LGA, whoever get SAS group support in the November election win Koton Karfe and partly Lokoja, there is no doubt about this.
And in Lokoja LGA, the two most important blocks are GYB and Buba blocks. The GYB block is mostly the appointees of the government and now in firm control of the newly elected HoR candidate, Hon Danladi Aguye while the Buba’s group which is the political upshoot of late Hon. Buba Jibrin is being now headed by veteran Alh. Mabo Kasim, a highly experience politician.
No matter the argument and what some inexperienced and overzealous supporters of inconsequential candidates say, the November election is a regional contest between APC, PDP and SDP and the candidates are Alh. Ododo Usman representing Ebira, Sen. Dino Okun candidate and Alh. Murtala Yakubu representing the Igala kingdom.
Hon. Abdulmalik Suleiman,
writes from Lokoja.