By joshua 2027 Ajaokuta Federal Constituency Election Not A Straight Fight, Apc Holds Structural Edge
By Abu Micheal
In the next couple of months, voters in Ajaokuta Federal Constituency will once again file out to elect their representative to the House of Representatives. On the surface the contest appears to be narrowing to a duel between two familiar names, but on the ground the dynamics suggest anything but a straight fight.
Over the years Ajaokuta politics has been guided by an unwritten understanding that incumbents who meet basic expectations are often allowed a second term. That pattern played out with Hon. Mohammed Sadiq and Hon. Lawal Mohammed in recent times. Yet the arrangement has never been cast in stone, and history shows the constituency will break the pattern whenever performance, structure and voter sentiment shift.
For 2027, while other political parties and candidates will be on the ballot, attention has focused on the incumbent Hon. Sanni Egidi Abdulraheem and Hon. Lawal Mohammed, a two-term former member of the House who lost his bid for a third term to Sanni in 2023. That result has set the stage for what many now describe as a rematch between two titans.
Hon. Sanni Egidi Abdulraheem was elected in 2023 on the platform of the All Progressives Congress and is seeking re-election on the same ticket. His opponent, Hon. Lawal Mohammed, contested the last election on the New Nigeria People’s Party platform, returned briefly to the APC after the polls, and now emerges as the flag bearer of the Peoples Democratic Party. When two elephants fight, the saying goes, the grass suffers, and the electorate in Ajaokuta will again serve as the final judge.
Observers note that the outcome will be shaped by party structure, voter acceptance, personal accomplishments delivered to the constituency, financial war chest, and alignment with the system.
The contest is not going to be a straight fight for the APC when measured against the pedigree of Hon. Lawal. He is regarded as a dogged and courageous politician with the financial muscle to run campaigns largely on his own, without depending heavily on community or individual support. His strength, supporters argue, lies in his ability to work independently and deliver impact without relying on committee structures. That self-reliant approach defined his eight years in the National Assembly between 2016 and 2023, a period during which he says his accomplishments surpass what the incumbent has achieved in three years.
For Hon. Sanni, the advantage he brings is organization. His campaign is described as running with the precision of a calibrated wall clock, supported by structured networks across the entire federal constituency. Even before 2023 his network and reputation for community intervention made him a name to reckon with.
In that election he swept Ajaokuta township polling units and made significant inroads in areas like Ganaja through road construction, other infrastructure, and direct humanitarian impact that rooted him firmly among the people.
The politics of Ajaokuta Federal Constituency has long been anchored in Geregu Ward, and that remains central to the 2027 permutations. In 2023 Hon. Sanni carried majority votes and polling units in Ajaokuta township while Hon. Lawal relied heavily on Geregu, where he recorded his strongest numbers. Lawal also banked on Igala extraction votes in Ganaja, but met a brick wall because Hon. Sanni had already built deep goodwill there through visible projects and personal interventions. The equation in Geregu appears to be shifting this time. Although not all demands of the community have been met, the area has enjoyed more direct intervention from the sitting state administration than in previous years, including a junior and senior secondary school, a primary health care centre, ongoing market construction and several boreholes sunk by the state government and government appointees. Those interventions have helped to douse the tension that once existed between the community and government. The two visits of Governor Usman Ahmed Ododo to Geregu in the last six months, along with meetings with stakeholders and notable individuals from the area, have further smoothed relations and attracted ongoing and completed infrastructure projects.
The All Progressives Congress has also grown stronger in Ajaokuta through the influx of notable defectors in the last couple of years, a development that has expanded the party’s structure at ward and polling unit levels. Even in Ganaja, a difficult terrain for the APC in the past, the emergence of Hon. Haruna Ganaja as the party’s chairmanship candidate has changed the story. Hon. Haruna was once a political associate of Hon. Lawal, and his defection has altered calculations in that area. With the PDP fielding Senator Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan again for Kogi Central Senatorial District as it did in 2023, it could help swing votes for the party’s House of Representatives candidate, though analysts say her influence appears to have waned compared to 2023 due to the emergence of other power blocks in the district.
The efforts of state appointees of Igala extraction such as the State Auditor General Hon. Yakubu Okala and Deputy Majority Leader Hon. Comfort Egwaba living in Ganaja have also been visible, with periodic outreaches, empowerment and infrastructure attention directed at the Igala population in Ganaja.
For now, the race for Ajaokuta Federal Constituency is too close to call. The APC holds an edge in men, structure and the backing of a sitting administration that is leaving nothing to chance in securing a wide margin in the National Assembly election which will hold same day as the Presidential election.
At the same time, Hon. Lawal’s capacity to run an independent campaign and his loyalty base in Geregu ensure he cannot be written off. Early signs indicate the election may witness a show of financial strength, force, intimidation and violence at some point with both gladiators relying on their war chests as money speaks its own political language before and on election day.
In terms of accomplishment, Hon. Sanni Egidi Abdulraheem’s three years in the National Assembly have produced notable constituency projects in roads, Erosion control, provision of Water, other infrastructure and direct community interventions that strengthened his name across the township and Ganaja in particular.
Hon. Lawal Mohammed’s eight years between 2016 and 2023 also recorded reasonable impact and empowerment programs that his supporters argue surpass the incumbent’s record.
What is clear is that textbook politics will not decide this election. Ajaokuta voters have always voted with multiple considerations such as project delivery, ethnic alignment, party loyalty and personal connection. With Geregu reconnecting to the system and Ganaja’s political map redrawn as the battle ground, the constituency is heading into a contest that is difficult to define ahead of the polls.
The two major gladiators are evenly matched, but the well-organized structure of their parties, with the APC appearing to have the upper hand, will play a decisive role. In the end, the people of Ajaokuta Federal Constituency will decide, and the result is unlikely to be a walkover for any side. For the Party, the ruling APC holds the ace, will bank on several institutional support to edge it rivals.