joshua
Ayo Ola
A former Consultant on Census Organisation to the NPC, Prof. Jacob Olorunfemi, has said that Nigeria needs accurate and reliable demographic data for policy formulation and planning for sustainable development.
He said the whopping amount of N869 billion or $1.8bn approved by the Federal Government of Nigeria for the National Population Commission (NPC) to conduct the 2023 population and housing census will only be justified if the census achieves correct, truthful and reliable data.
In an interview on Tuesday, he called on the federal government, security agencies and other relevant stakeholders to ensure adequate security for the census to be hitch-free.
The Prof also noted that Nigeria’s population is estimated at about 216 million, according to the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA); and added that if Nigeria continues in its current population growth rate, Nigeria may have a 100 per cent increase in its population by 2050, reaching up to 400 million people, according to statistical projections.
He noted that Nigeria has not had a census for about the past 16 years, whereas the United Nations recommended that population censuses be taken at least every ten years. He noted that the UN recommendations also cover census topics to be collected, official definitions, classifications and other useful information to coordinate international practices.
According to him, Nigeria is expected to conduct its sixth population and housing enumeration exercise in May 2023; which will be the fifth since it gained independence from its British colonial masters.
Findings showed that even before the amalgamation of the colonies that became Nigeria in 1914, the British colonialists adopted a decennial system of enumeration, and conducted censuses in 1866, 1871, 1881, 1891, and 1901. The exercise allowed them to have an idea of population figures, projected tax revenues, and development plans.
However, the system was disrupted by the Second World War, and Nigeria’s first census as a political entity took place in 1952/53.
Since then, opinions are that irregular censuses have been conducted in 1962, 1962/63; 1973 under the military government of General Yakubu Gowon; 1991 under General Ibrahim Babangida, and 2006 during the administration of former President Olusegun Obasanjo, which put Nigeria’s population at about 140 million. The upcoming census will be the first in 17 years since after 2006 exercise.
Prof Olorunfemi, who recently retired as a lecturer but was formerly with the Geography Department, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Ilorin, Kwara State, called for accountability on the spending of Nigeria’s 2023 census fund.
While appealing for cooperation among Nigerians, including the NPC officials, such as enumerators, field coordinators, facilitators and technical team; he also pleaded with security agencies and the FG to ensure adequate security for the exercise to be successful.
He said it would be necessary for all the items in a comprehensive census, such as name, sex, age, religion, tribe, place of origin, state of residence, occupation, and other necessary information, to be included in the planned census for holistic data and national planning.
Prof Olorunfem, said, “There is no amount of money that we could spend to collect a reliable, accurate and acceptable census of the figure, in terms of the number of people we are in this country, where we are from, state of residence and more important a place of birth, No matter the amount of money spent, once you are able to achieve that major goal of knowing how many we are, it is worth the money. There must be accountability.
“The most important part of it is that we must cooperate with the NPC. I am aware that they have put in place all necessary arrangements to make sure that the census is practically carried out. As citizens, we must cooperate with NPC. Whoever is recruited must be ready to sacrifice time and all efforts. All hands must be on deck. No stone must be left unturned to achieve this major objective of knowing how many we are and where we are located. The only way to justify that is also to have accurate results.
“So much money has been spent starting from the training of the management staff including the Chairman of NPC and honourable federal commissioners. I happened to have been involved in that. Census is a very expensive activity, we must not underestimate the quantum of money that would be spent on the census. But what is important is: once the result is out, it will justify or be more than justify the investment. But we must also take note: census is not as simple as counting numbers. Maps have to be drawn on every part of this country. Reconnaissance surveys, several visits, tours, sample surveys, testing of instruments of investigation and so many other things have to be made. The few days of the census are not only the involvement. For the past three years, several activities have taken place including training of census personnel for them to recognise that they have a task which is to give the country, an accurate, reliable and acceptable census.”
He added, “Even though I am very optimistic, I must tell you that I have my reservations about this upcoming census. The first time is the timing. This is the time when the country is very divided. I just hope that what we experienced during that last presidential election, in terms of the use of Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BIVAS) and uploading of results from polling units to IREV can not take place. there was uploading of the results to IREV for the Senate and House of Representatives but it was impossible for the presidential election. That kind of selective functionality of the equipment is clearly worrisome. I am optimistic. I still want to give NPC a chance.
“Having a census is better than not having one at all. We need to have an accurate number of information, about how many people we have, and how many households we have. For me, if I were to be the Chairman of NPC, we will ask data on ethnicity, we need to know how many of us are Yoruba, Hausa, Ibo, Ibibio, TiV etc. There is nothing wrong with that. I want to know how many of us are Christians, Muslims and traditionalists and where we live. There are so many questions to ask because to relate with you, I need to know your place of birth and religion. That is humanity. If some items are not there, it is still okay as in our system, it will be considered to be okay. However, there is nowhere in the world where the census is 100 per cent accurate.
“For as long as it is within a limited percentage of error, it is still considered good enough. However, the fact of the matter is that we need to know who we are. We are sharing away from that issue. It is because of the primordial idea in this country of who you know and not who you are. We should rather take advantage of the difference we have. We must look for the kind of conference we would talk of Nigeria as a country or a nation. For you to say that our existence is not negative is not acceptable. We must sit down and ask ourselves what is our goal. In the next 10, 15 or 20 years, where do we want Nigeria to be? We must sit down to do that. And put up strategies to achieve those specific objectives for our national goals.”
“We must know all our potential. How many doctors, nurses, lawyers, engineers etc. We have to know how many people with specialisations. Unfortunately, we have not provided the enabling environment to make the large number of human resources we have in this country. We have not been using them but they excel wherever they are all over the world. We must have to bring back these eggheads to develop our country.
“Security is another issue. I was there when the President unveiled the programme of the census itself. The Chief of Army Staff was there. There was the assurance of security but in this country, we are used to giving assurance when it is rhetoric. Security is a major problem. In some areas, NPC found it difficult to recruit enough enumerators because people are afraid for their lives. Security is a major challenge given the security problem we have. The timing of the census is an issue, money has not been released on time to NPC,” Prof Olorunfem said.
