By joshua KOGI CENTRAL APC AT A CROSSROADS: LITIGATION, INTERNAL DIVISION AND THE DANGER OF COMPLACENCY
A divided party cannot afford to underestimate the power of an aggrieved membership or the uncertainty of electoral litigation.
The All Progressives Congress (APC) in Kogi Central may be approaching another critical political crossroads.
What should ordinarily be a period of mobilisation, unity and preparation for victory is increasingly being overshadowed by internal disagreements, unresolved grievances and ongoing litigation arising from the party’s primary elections.
The message from these developments is simple: a divided political house is vulnerable, particularly when a determined opposition is waiting to exploit every weakness.
The APC cannot afford to pretend that everything is normal.
The controversies surrounding the National Assembly primaries have created wounds that, if left untreated, could become political liabilities during the forthcoming elections. Several aspirants and stakeholders have approached the courts over the processes that produced some of the candidates, while other members continue to express dissatisfaction over what they perceive as imposition, manipulation or denial of a level playing field.
These grievances may eventually be determined by the courts, but politically, the damage caused by prolonged internal division can be much harder to repair.
THE WARNING THAT SHOULD NOT BE IGNORED
There have also been concerns surrounding the declaration of results from some of the ward primaries.
Reports that the APC National Publicity Secretary, Mr. Felix Morka, cautioned state party officials against announcing or declaring winners prematurely, yet such directives were allegedly disregarded, have continued to generate questions among party members and stakeholders.
Whether one agrees with the complaints or not, the responsible approach is not to silence them but to address them.
A political party that refuses to listen to its own members may eventually discover that those members have found other ways of expressing their dissatisfaction.
76,800 MEMBERS: A NUMBER THAT DESERVES QUESTIONS
Another issue that should concern the party is the reported APC e-registration figure in Kogi Central.
With approximately 76,800 registered members reportedly reflected in the e-registration exercise, questions naturally arise when this figure is compared with the more than 100,000 votes the APC reportedly secured in previous elections in the district.
The figures deserve proper political analysis.
Where did the additional votes come from?
Are there registered supporters who were not captured in the e-registration exercise?
Have some members become disengaged?
Or does the difference simply reflect the broader nature of electoral support beyond formal party membership?
Whatever the explanation may be, the leadership should not dismiss the matter. Numbers are political signals, and wise political organisations study every signal before an election.
THE COURTS MAY STILL ALTER THE POLITICAL CALCULATION
Perhaps the most important factor in the present situation is the ongoing litigation.
Nigeria’s electoral history contains instances where court decisions have affected the candidates or names submitted by political parties to the electoral commission. The courts have constitutional and statutory responsibilities in determining disputes brought before them, and political parties cannot assume that every matter will necessarily end exactly as it began.
This is why the APC leadership must take the ongoing cases seriously.
The matters involving Chief Momoh Yusuf Obaro, Hon. Tijani Ahmed Ozigi and Hon. M. I. Onimisi, among others, should not be treated merely as personal disagreements. They form part of a wider political atmosphere that could have consequences for the party if not properly managed.
As campaigns progress, nobody can completely rule out a situation in which a judicial pronouncement changes the political equation.
And if such a development occurs, party members may suddenly find themselves in a position where they are expected to campaign for a candidate different from the person they had initially prepared to support.
Politics has produced such unexpected turns before.
The experience associated with Rt. Hon. Rotimi Amaechi in Rivers State remains a reminder that political calculations can change dramatically through legal and institutional processes.
The lesson is not that any particular candidate will necessarily emerge through litigation. The lesson is that politicians should never confuse today’s political arrangement with tomorrow’s guaranteed outcome.
THE REAL DANGER IS NOT THE COURT — IT IS DIVISION
The APC’s greatest challenge may therefore not be the courtroom itself.
It may be the growing distance between party members.
A candidate can survive a difficult primary. A political party can survive litigation. But a party that enters an election with deeply divided members may struggle to mobilise the same enthusiasm, commitment and grassroots energy that produced victory in previous elections.
There are many APC members who may remain silent today but will make their final political decisions when they stand before the ballot box.
This is why the leadership should not measure party loyalty merely by the number of people attending rallies.
The real test is what happens when those who feel excluded, ignored or politically wounded are asked to vote.
RECONCILIATION BEFORE CAMPAIGNING
The APC leadership still has an opportunity to prevent these disagreements from becoming an electoral crisis.
We call for urgent, genuine and sincere reconciliation involving the national leadership, state executives, aspirants, candidates, elected representatives, elders and grassroots members.
Reconciliation must go beyond photographs and political meetings. It must address the grievances themselves.
Those who believe they were wronged must be given an opportunity to speak.
Those accused of wrongdoing must be given an opportunity to respond.
And where mistakes have been made, the courage to correct them should be regarded not as weakness but as political wisdom.
The APC does not need another internal war. It needs unity.
The party must remember that an opposition does not need to defeat a united ruling party if that ruling party defeats itself through division.
The coming election will not be won by certificates, titles, endorsements or party structures alone. It will be won by people, organisation, trust, mobilisation and the willingness of party members to stand together on election day.
The window for reconciliation is still open.
Let the APC leadership act before the window closes.
Because when the people finally enter the polling booth, political excuses will no longer matter.
Time shall tell.
By:
APC PATRIOT GROUP
KOGI CENTRAL SENATORIAL DISTRICT