By joshua 2027: OSUN 2026 AND THE ROAD TO PRESIDENT TINUBU’S VICTORY
By Musa Bakare
Politics is often misunderstood when the emotions of the moment are mistaken for the verdict of destiny.
The outcome of the 2026 Osun governorship election has generated unnecessary excitement across some political landscape.
Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party won, while the APC came second. But anyone interpreting that result as a referendum on the 2027 presidential election is making a fundamental political error.
There is absolutely nothing for Abubakar Atiku and his ADC to celebrate about the APC not winning.
The APC went into Osun to win and must honestly examine why it lost. It must strengthen its grassroots structures, reconcile aggrieved members, improve its communication, and mobilise more effectively. Losing Osun is far different from losing Nigeria.
For the ADC and its presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, finishing a distant third, even with restless political militants together with former Osun governor Rauf Aregbesola cannot reasonably be converted into evidence that they have suddenly acquired the national strength to defeat President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
A presidential election is fundamentally different from a governorship election. It requires a nationwide structure capable of converting political enthusiasm into millions of votes across 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.
The opposition therefore faces a much bigger challenge than producing impressive rallies or assembling prominent politicians under one platform.
Noise is not structure. Social media popularity is not votes. Political alliances are not automatically electoral victories.
The APC and President Tinubu, meanwhile, enter 2027 as incumbents with a record of achievements Nigerians can see and examine.
The administration has undertaken difficult reforms, including fuel subsidy and foreign exchange adjustments, while pursuing massive infrastructure projects across the country, alongside economic and institutional changes.
Nigerians are aware that these reforms require continuity and time to produce their full benefits.
Nigerians also understand that every major national transformation passes through difficult seasons. They will be happy and willing to continue with the reform process and never return to the old order.
The seed must sometimes remain underground before the harvest becomes visible.
Many Nigerians believe the country is going through a very necessary period of restructuring. No serious nation abandons reforms simply because the transition is difficult.
The greatest danger to the APC is not Atiku or the ADC. It is complacency.
The Osun result should be treated as a warning bell, not a funeral bell. The APC must learn from its defeat, strengthen its internal cohesion, return aggressively to the grassroots.
The APC will approach 2027 as a party seeking every vote, not as an incumbent entitled to victory.
Every ward matters. Every local government matters. Every state matters and every Nigerian voter matters.
Osun has delivered its verdict. The APC came second. The Accord Party won. The ADC failed to turn the election into the national breakthrough it had hoped for.
The opposition may gather. Coalitions will multiply, and political rhetoric will become louder. But elections are not won by declarations; they are won by votes. Votes are earned through organisation, performance, persuasion, and trust.
The lesson of Osun 2026 for the APC should not be fear, despair, or of the false celebrations. It should be of renewed organisation, renewed humility, and renewed determination.
When Nigerians eventually enter the polling booths in 2027, they will not be voting on the basis of Osun 2026. They will be answering a much bigger question: Who can best lead Nigeria into its next chapter?
That is the battlefield on which President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the APC will overwhelmingly win.
Musa Asiru Bakare, political analyst, writes from Lokoja, Kogi State.
August 19, 2026